The Impact of VAR on Football Betting: Navigating Uncertainty

Last updated on January 27th, 2025

Credit – https://pixabay.com/photos/sport-football-ball-play-stadium-4059921/ 

Introduction

We all love a bit of VAR, don’t we? Personally, I like how much clarity it brings to the game. It doesn’t stop the flow of play, gets all the decisions right, and doesn’t create any confusion or huge talking points after the game. Just as it was designed. Of course, I am being sarcastic; I’m slathering it all over my comments. In all seriousness, what a mess VAR has become. 

For years, we wanted this technology to change our game and try to balance the luck that the big teams got from the refs, but if anything, it’s sent the pendulum swinging the other way. Best laid plans, as they say. 

For those who bet on games, it creates an extra layer of frustration and uncertainty that didn’t exist before VAR. Many betting platforms fuse their sportsbooks with their casinos, and if you’re somebody who partakes in both types of gambling games, then you’ll already know about the agonising wait that a wager can create. 

An online casino operates differently from other gambling platforms, but the premise remains the same. All gambling games come with some level of uncertainty, and online casinos are no different. However, the inclusion of VAR into the Premier League has created fresh levels of uncertainty within its respective gambling markets.

Bearing The Brunt

There aren’t many football fans who besmirch the idea of having video-assisted referees. This idea has worked in tennis and rugby for many years. In fact, Hawkeye has been implemented very successfully in tennis, operating at the Australian Open for nearly 20 years. So why not the beautiful game? 

Well, as we know, its implementation has caused such furore. I wanted VAR to come in and change the Premier League, make it fairer, and stop the cheats from succeeding. But now it’s just turned into this odd format where it’s a guaranteed foul if the referee checks it on the TV—and blatant fouls can often go overlooked entirely. It doesn’t stop managers arguing about whether something is a foul or not, though.

Anyway, I digress. Few people argued against VAR, and I think it’s safe to say now that if you browse social media after a big VAR call, few people still want it to remain, at least in its current format.

Changing The Landscape Of Betting

In-play betting has transformed football betting. In fact, it’s transformed every other sports betting market. I remember when it was first rolled out, back when a lot of sports betting took place on laptops and desktops, a time before the mobile betting app. 

However, given the significant switch to mobile betting apps that happened in the early 2010s, following the launch of the iPhone, the App Store and all of the possibilities that opened up. 

Many of those who place football bets will call on various sources to try and get one over on the bookies. Some might scour the stats to find the best FPL captain pickers to see what they think about the upcoming gameweek. Some people might get lost in a wormhole on YouTube looking at a load of random influencers completely over-dissecting tactical breakdowns. That’s me, I’m some people.

VAR has added an additional level of anxiety to in-play betting, speaking from personal experience. When cash-out is suspended, and you know something was happening back before VAR, it either meant a goal or play resumed; that was it. 

Nowadays, it can resume, take 2 minutes to get checked by VAR, and get ruled out. The same happens for a penalty decision. You just never know how it will go once the VAR overlords start prodding around and analysing all the footage. I still have flashbacks to the City and Spurs game in 2019, and I don’t even support either team. 

Conclusion

We know just how much uncertainty exists in betting; it’s why the house always wins, but VAR has not helped the anxiety levels at all. I’ve sat in a stadium while they spent minutes checking goals and fouls, and then it’s gone the wrong way. 

The football betting platforms have not felt the impact at all – in-play betting represents about 40% of the US market. Some experts believe this figure will be closer to 60% by the end of this decade. No sports bettors have downed tools in protest of VAR; it’s just another hurdle to try and navigate in a race where many of us fall on the first hurdle anyway. 

It has taken the magic out of the game, though. The opinion seems pretty unanimous on that front. Instead of a last-minute equaliser or winner saving our bet, we have to sit around and navigate the uncertainty of whether it’ll be ruled out, usually for an infringement that isn’t an infringement or somebody who is offside by 0.0002 millimetres. A beautiful game, indeed.

Mark De Carvalho
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