Last updated on August 14th, 2024
Written by FPervaL
The wait is finally over and the new Premier League football season is about to kick off. After trying dozens of drafts, you are finally satisfied with the shape of your team but still feel that it requires a final touch that could give you an extra boost or the edge over your mini-league rivals. Recently, if you are a dedicated FPL manager (and you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be reading this), you read a lot about Emile Smith Rowe, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Valentin Barco, Oscar Bobb, etc and for a reason, because all of them offer great value for money at the moment. Personally, when it comes to this price range, I prefer to look for a differential choice rather than go with the obvious (ESR in this case, whose ownership is now over 12%) which is why in this article I will suggest several players who I believe could start the season well and whose ownership is less than 1.5% at the moment of writing.
1. Ben Brereton Diaz (5.5, current ownership 0.7%)
To be honest, this one is mostly influenced by algorithms and projections, which are incredibly high for the first six games. He is projected to score 25.93 points, significantly higher than Smith Rowe’s 21.08 or any other midfielder in this price range. What is even more appalling, he is projected to outscore some of the most popular midfield picks, Gordon (23.32) and Mbuemo (24.82) for example, not even too far from Eze (27.03). The fixtures also look nice, as they will face Forest, Ipswich, Leicester, and United (who did significantly strengthen their defense recently, but it will certainly take time to put all the pieces together) at home and will have two not-so-difficult away fixtures (Brentford and Bournemouth) in the first 8 matches. Expected to be a regular starter as the left winger in front three and as someone who already showed that he can score goals at the Premier League level (6 in only 14 starts for Sheffield Utd last season), there is definitely a case for inclusion in your FPL team.
Ben Brereton Diaz Heatmap, Premier League season 2023/2024; source: Sofascore
2. Antoine Semenyo (5.5, current ownership 1.2%)
Best Bournemouth offensive player along with Solanke from the previous season, now expected to be the focal point of Bournemouth’s attack and classified as a midfielder (for reference, if he was classified as a midfielder last season he would have finished on 118 points, which is 3.6 ppg). This, combined with some nice fixtures early on (nfo, NEW, SOU, lei) suggests that he could continue where he left off last season, although there is a question of how will Bournemouth look in the attacking phase without their main forward option and with his backup option (Enes Unal) injured. Point projections are looking nice (20.49) and are almost the same as Hudson-Odoi and Elanga’s but slightly lower than Smith Rowe’s.
Antoine Semenyo Heatmap, Premier League season 2023/2024; source: Sofascore
3. Kevin Schade (5.5, current ownership 0.1%)
This one is the real punt, owned only by closest relatives. Arrived with great expectations last year from Freiburg but showed only glimpses of his potential by scoring two goals and adding one assist in only 3 starts. However, his performances in recent pre-season games (scored three goals in four games) look promising and he is expected to be a starter for at least the first few games.
The fixtures are mixed, nice home (Palace, Southampton, West Ham Wolves) but terrible away (Liverpool, City and Tottenham), and if for whatever reason you decide to go with him, you might need a backup option for GW2, 4 and 5 (someone from Brighton or Fulham ideally).
Kevin Schade Heatmap, Premier League season 2023/2024; source: Sofascore
4. Conclusion
There is a consensus that we never had so many interesting but at the same time important mid-priced options in FPL. What actually made them more important than in previous seasons is the pricing of the most owned premium assets, because now it’s almost impossible to build a decent squad without at least 2-3 midfield or forward enablers, who you will need to score points and not just be a number. You can hardly expect your Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth, or Forest player to bring you points week in and week out, but if you can guess when they will, that could do some great stuff to your ranking. This is one of the main reasons why am I leaning towards having Rogers and Brereton as my 4th and 5th midfielder, rather than Smith Rowe, although I agree that Smith Rowe is a better player than Brereton, does it necessarily make him a better fantasy pick? That depends on multiple factors, such as the rest of your team and your transfer plans.
For example, if you rotate Rogers, Brereton, and Wood (play two bench one) for the first six games you would get:
1. whu, BOU
2. sou, NFO
3. lei, WOL
4. EVE, MUTD
5. WOL, IPS
6. ips, FUL
Personally, this is the area of the team where I am more willing to risk and experiment than with the premium captaincy option, plus, with so many good options in the same price range, if your player is dropped, injured, or out of form, you can easily swap him for someone else. Risk is pretty low in this early stage, but rewards can be significant!
