Last updated on August 3rd, 2024
A deep dive by @fpl_del into the best options from the newly promoted Premier League Teams
For FPL Managers with even a short history of playing the game, these two names will conjure up feelings of pure joy and nostalgia.
John Lundstram was a £4.0m defender for newly promoted Sheffield United in the 2019/20, Covid hit season. His 2018/19 stats were nothing to write home about managing only 10 appearances, logging a single assist. But following promotion, Lundstram became a mainstay in the Blades lineup clocking up 34 appearances including 5 Premier League goals and 2 assists.
He often played wing back or defensive midfield, but his defensive classification saw him also gain points from contributing to 10 clean sheets, amassing an impressive 144 points in total as Sheffield United finished a highly respectable 9th.
Those points ranked him ahead of the likes of Manchester City legends David Silva (139) and Sergio Aguero (132). Alas, it was a flash in the pan though, as he only managed to rack up 48 points in the following 2020/21 season as Sheffield United were relegated back to the Championship.
Stuart Dallas picked up the baton from ‘Lord’ Lundstram in the 2020/21 season and took it to levels that even the Lord wasn’t able to achieve! Starting at £4.5m, and again ranked as a defender, Dallas was usually deployed in midfield and often in more attacking positions under the aggressive tutelage of Marcelo Bielsa.
Dallas racked up 8 goals, 3 assists and contributed to 12 clean sheets as Leeds United also finished 9th in their first season up from the Championship. Dallas achieved 171 points in total outscoring prime Andy Robertson (161) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (160)!
This was also the season Patrick Bamford amassed the grand total of 194 points with 17 goals and 11 assists ranking him 5th overall from a starting price of £5.5m.
Leeds also fell afoul of the ‘difficult second season’ syndrome in 2021/22 as they slummed to 17th position narrowly avoiding relegation. Dallas was reclassified as a midfielder and only managed 80 points with just a single goal and assist to his name.
Pickings have been slimmer in recent times. This time last year I highlighted Alfie Doughty as a potential star, and after a slow start, he did manage to notch 2 goals and 10 assists for a total of 101 points as Luton put up a brave fight, before ultimately returning to the Championship at the first time of asking. Not bad value from a £4.5m defender.
The highest scoring promoted player was Gustavo Hamer notching 4 goals and 7 assists for a total of 108 points from a £5.0m price point, as Sheffield United were also relegated following promotion the previous season.
So, if we’re going to find another Lundstram or Dallas, we probably need to find a defender playing out of position, from the promoted sides, who perform unexpectedly well in the Premier League. But as Hamer showed last season and Bamford showed in the past, value can be found in players from promoted sides. So, let’s take a look at where we might find that for the 2024/25 FPL season.
Leicester
It was a tale of 2 halves for Leicester’s Championship campaign last season soaring to a 13 point lead around the halfway stage. However a poor turn of form in February and March saw them slip out of the automatic promotion places at one stage only for them to regain their composure and finish with 5 wins from their last 8 games to pip Ipswich to the title by a single point and, like Southampton, secure a Premier League return at the first time of asking.
Like Southampton, relegation meant offloading some of their best talent with players like James Maddison (Spurs), Harvey Barnes (Newcastle), Youri Tielemans (Aston Villa) and Timothy Castagne (Fulham) all departing. In total Leicester shipped out 8 players who had been considered regulars in their relegation season. They were able to bolster their ranks by signing proven Premier League talent like Harry Winks and Connor Coady and added exciting talent like Stephy Mavididi from Montpellier and Issaahaku Fatawu from Sporting.
As you would expect of Champions, they were the most consistent across the season in terms of their stats, with the 3rd most goals scored at home and the most away from home. Despite the blip in their season, they also had the 3rd best home defence and the best away defence to boot so of the 3 promoted teams they are the ones I am more likely to consider defenders from.
So far this window, Leicester have made Fatawu’s loan move from Sporting permanent whilst adding Bobby De Cordova Reid from Fulham and 18-year-old CB Caleb Okoli from Atalanta. However, they have lost another of their stars in Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall who has joined Chelsea after he notched 12 goals and 14 assists in the Championship.
Dewsbury-Hall (£6.0m) along with signings Mavididi (£5.5m) and Fatawu (£5.5m) were their standout performers last season. Mavididi scored 12 goals and made 6 more whilst Fatawu was equally impressive with 6 goals and 13 assists. Ricardo Perreira (£4.5m) also scored 3 goals and made 3 from Right Back and has Premier League Pedigree. Despite only making 18 starts, evergreen forward Jamie Vardy (£5.5m) was also able to bag a very respectable 18 goals and 2 assists earning himself a contract extension and one final shot at the Premier League.
Of the 3 promoted teams, Leicester are the favourites to survive next term. They will need to call on all their Premier League experience and will need new Manager Steve Cooper to work his magic if they are to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.
Southampton
Southampton defeated Leeds 1-0 in the Playoff final to return to the Premier League at the first time of asking. They were able to offload some of their big earners like James Ward-Prowse (West Ham) and recoup big fees for players such Romer Lavia (Chelsea) and Tino Livramento (Newcastle) whilst keeping the nucleus of their young squad intact. They added talent such as Mason Holgate (Everton) and Taylor Harwood-Bellis (Manchester City) and Flynn Downes (West Ham) on loan to bolster their squad.
They scored the 2nd most home goals in the Championship and the 7th most away from home, however their defence fared much worse. They had only the 15th best home defence and the 14th best away defence, although their home defence was much improved over the second half of the season (6th). Still, nothing to get too excited about.
Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Flynn Downes have now arrived on permanent deals whilst they have added Yukinari Sugawara, a RB from AZ Alkmar and Charlie Taylor from Burnley. Centre Back pair Nathan Wood and Ronnie Edwards have arrived from Swansea and Peterborough respectively. Carlos Alcaraz has returned from loan at Juventus whilst Armel Bella-Kotchap, likewise from PSV. Adam Lallana rejoins on a free transfer from Brighton.
Their top performers last season were Adam Armstrong (£5.5m) who scored 24 goals and made 13 assists in 47 starts, and definitely comes into consideration for us. He will have an even heavier burden this season with Che Adams departure to Torino. Kyle Walker Peters (£4.5m) was also consistent with 2 goals and 4 assists, however given their defensive frailties, isn’t someone I will be looking at. Stuart Armstrong scored 5 and created 7 goals from midfield but has left on a free transfer.
Without significant arrivals, especially in attacking positions, I think it’s going to be another tough season in the Premier League for Southampton and the potential for a big return seems particularly slim.
Ipswich
Ipswich were the surprise package of the Championship last season sealing back-to-back promotions after finishing runners up in League 1 in 2022/23. Their transfer dealings were modest given their expectations and mainly based around adding good young quality players like Dane Scarlett (Spurs), Jeremy Sarmienton (Brighton) and Omari Hutchinson (Chelsea) on loan.
They scored the most home goals in the whole Championship and the 6th most away goals as they finished runners up to Leicester. Like Southampton, they struggled defensively at home with only the 18th best home defence but were better on the road with the 3rd best away defence.
So far this transfer window they have made Hutchinson’s loan deal from Chelsea permanent and added highly rated forward Liam Delap from Manchester City. Defensively, Ben Johnson has joined from West Ham on a free transfer whilst Centre Back Jacob Greaves arrives from Hull City and Burnley Keeper Arijanet Muric gets another shot at the Premier League after Burnley’s relegation. Arguably Ipswich’s best ‘signing’ was managing to keep hold of Head Coach Kieran McKenna amongst interest from Brighton and Chelsea.
Ipswich’s standout performer last term was left back Leif Davis (£4.5m) who led the way with Championship Assists with a stunning 18 and 2 goals. Their goals in forward positions were more shared with Conor Chaplin (£5.5m, 13 goals, 8 assists), Nathan Broadhead (£5m, 13 goals, 3 assists) and Omari Hutchinson (£5.5m, 10 goals, 5 assists) all reaching double figures. All are classified as Midfielders this term with them generally being deployed as a 3 behind a central striker (Broadhead LW, Chaplin CAM and Hutchinson RW) and will be in consideration for those looking for a budget midfield option.
It is almost unthinkable that a team who were in League 1 two seasons ago could survive in the Premier League, let alone secure a decent finish, however Luton surprised a lot of people with their attacking play last season and with their highly rated top Coach Ipswich may be able to spring a surprise this year. They are going to need an out and out goal scorer and I am not sure Delap is up to it just yet. 12 goals in 46 starts across 3 seasons in the Championship does not suggest he’s ready for the step up just yet.
Other Championship 2023/24 Stars
Jaden Philogene (£5.5m) resigned for Aston Villa from Hull City in a deal worth £18m (Villa got around £5m of that back as they had a 30% sell-on clause). He made 32 appearances for Hull last season netting 12 times and assisting a further 6 goals. He was the third highest rated player in the Championship (according to whoscored.com) but given the attacking talent Villa have at their disposal, I would expect, at least initially, that Philogene will be a squad player and not a first choice in the Premier League. He might be worth keeping an eye on in the pre-season.
Championship top scorer, Sammie Szmodics scored 27 times and assisted 4 more goals for Blackburn last term (in 100 less minutes than Armstrong scored his goals, for a weaker team). However, whilst strongly linked to Ipswich, a move is yet to be finalised.
Hot off the press, West Ham have snapped up Championship Player of Season, Crysencio Summerville from Leeds United in a £25m deal. Summerville scored 20 times and assisted a further 9 in 44 starts as Leeds missed out on promotion back to the Premier League at the final hurdle. He will provide solid support for Bowen and Kudus in the wide areas for West Ham and with rumours that they will soon tie up a deal for Niclas Fullkrug from Dortmund, he could be an exciting prospect. I would expect him to come into the game priced at around £6m. Any cheaper than that and he will be a solid bench player.
Conclusions
Goalkeepers
With Mark Flekken (Brentford), Norberton Neto (Bournemouth) 2 Sam Johnstone / Dean Henderson (Palace), Chelsea’s Keepers, Jose Sa (Wolves) and Brighton’s Keepers all £4.5m I don’t think we need to spend too much time looking at promoted Keepers, who’s likely first choices are all in that price bracket.
Defenders
Again, looking at defensive performances last season, only Leicester filled me with any sort of confidence. We will need to keep an eye on who lines up for them in pre-season as both Wout Faes and Jannik Vestergard priced at £4.0m having made 40 plus appearances last season.
Leif Davis (£4.5m) is the standout attacking option, but I’m concerned about Ipswich’s defence and in that price bracket, he’s up against seasoned FPL assets such as Joachim Anderson (121 pts in 2023/24 and 124 points in 2021/22), Lewis Dunk (110+ points in 3 of the last 5 seasons) and guaranteed starters in good teams like Micky Van de Ven (Spurs), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa) and Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace). I’ll be keeping a close eye on him but he’s unlikely to start in my squad.
Midfielders
Across Leicester and Ipswich there are 6 good Midfield options in the £5.0m to £5.5m bracket. Depending on your team structure, you are likely to need anywhere between 1 (a balanced squad) and 3 (a Haaland / Salah type squad) Midfielders at around that price point.
There are plenty of other options around at this price point, maybe not as guaranteed of their place, but certainly in more established Premier League teams with more proven track records. Andreas Periera (£5.5m) has notched up 123 and 127 in his 2 Premier League seasons with Fulham. His minutes will come slightly under threat following the arrival of Emile Smith Rowe (also £5.5m) from Arsenal. ESR’s fitness has always been a concern though and Marco Silva may even find space for both of them in his starting XI when both are fit. Alex Iwobi completes a trio of Fulham options at £5.5m who has also racked up 100+ points in his last 2 seasons.
Brighton are always an exciting watch and Simon Adingra managed 6 goals and an assist from 25 starts last season. A lot will depend on how they line up and utilise Solly March after Pascal Gross’ departure back to Germany.
Harvey Elliot has started both Liverpool’s pre-season games (the first in a false nine position), logging 2 assists in the most recent fixture vs Arsenal.
Scott McTominay (£5.0m) managed 7 goals and an assist in his 18 starts for Manchester United last season. He’s started 1 friendly and come off the bench in another and United are yet to reinforce their Midfield ahead of the new season.
Ultimately, I think the promoted players have the benefit of more guaranteed minutes. I took a gamble last season on Elliot Anderson (£4.5m) at Newcastle and it cost me a transfer quite quickly as he barely featured. So, I am leaning towards including one of the promoted potions in my starting squad. If I had to choose right now, it would be Fatawu, because I think Leicester will be better equipped than Ipswich to deal with the Premier League, however I will keep tabs on them all during pre-season fixtures to see who has the best form.
Forwards
This is really a straight up shootout between the guaranteed minutes of Adam Armstrong and the proven Premier League ability of Jamie Vardy. That is an easy answer for me. I was burned by Armstrong 2 seasons ago as he flopped after similar levels of performance in the previous Championship campaign. Some players just naturally find their level. Others just continue to prove people wrong and where else could you find a player with 136 Premier League goals and 64 Assists for £5.5m?
Joao Pedro starts the season at £5.5m again this year but I really want to see how Brighton line up under new boss Fabian Hurzeler before he comes into consideration. There really aren’t any other viable options at this price point for me and so the decision to be made is can we find another £0.5m from somewhere in the squad to upgrade to Rodrigo Muniz (£6.0m) at Fulham. His 9 goals and 2 assists in 18 starts made him a great option in the second half of last season and he seems to have slipped under the radar for a considerable price hike. My heart says go with the nostalgic pick of Vardy but, leaving emotion at the door, I fully expect Muniz to line up in my GW1 squad.
Thanks for reading, please feel free to drop me your thoughts and a follow 👍
