Last updated on March 12th, 2025
Every Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager has their rituals. We monitor our players’ stats, read the articles, and peruse the forums—where some, it seems, speak as though they possess the wisdom of the ages. But for the majority, there’s a more rudimentary process of picking players: the points just haven’t been there, so they’ve dropped down the list. Or, they’ve got a nice fixture coming up, so let’s see if the points roll in. It’s all well and good, but at the end of the day, this often leaves us at the mercy of basic, old-school stats—goals, assists, clean sheets—when there’s something far more revealing at our fingertips: expected goals, or xG.
Of course, that’s easier said than done, isn’t it? Predictions, after all, are a tricky business. Whether it’s assessing the potential of a newly transferred player or trying your luck at a betting site like Nine Win Casino, the outcome’s never quite as predictable as one might hope. But it’s this very unpredictability that makes FPL—and indeed the world of gambling itself—so compelling. Sometimes, the fun lies in the chaos and uncertainty, and that’s where xG comes in. It’s not about knowing exactly when a goal is coming, but rather understanding the chances of that goal arriving. And xG allows you to make educated guesses, to anticipate the next wave of points, to spot players who are due for a breakout—or perhaps to avoid those whose form has been unsustainable.
XG: What’s in a Number?
In its simplest form, xG is a way of quantifying the quality of a player’s goal-scoring chances. It takes into account the position of the shot, whether it’s taken with the player’s stronger foot, the type of assist, and various other factors that influence the likelihood of scoring. Think of it as a more refined way of looking at a player’s performance. Not just the goals they’ve scored, but the goals they could’ve scored—if they’d been luckier, or perhaps more clinical.
The brilliance of xG is that it acknowledges the randomness of football—after all, even the best strikers miss chances—but it also focuses on the underlying potential. You see, when managers only focus on goals, they’re missing the bigger picture. Consider a player who’s had ten shots in the box in the last three games but scored only once. On the face of it, you might think their form is poor, but in reality, their xG might show that their chances have been of a high quality. So, rather than jumping to conclusions, xG encourages you to take a step back and assess whether this dry spell is just that—or whether it’s a sign that more points are around the corner.
The Undervalued Players: They’re Coming, Just Wait for It
When you look closely, there’s a certain elegance to how xG reveals players who could be underperforming in front of goal but who are still providing value. Consider the cases of players like Ollie Watkins or Kai Havertz. Both have historically underperformed their xG figures, and yet they’ve continued to rack up assists and goals over time, often against the odds. The key here is understanding that xG isn’t about one game; it’s a long-term measure. And often, managers—distracted by a poor run of form—will overlook a player whose underlying numbers suggest that their next goal is just around the corner. By the time a manager figures it out, that player has had their breakout, and the price has risen.
But there’s more to it than that. xG helps you spot players in form, not just in the traditional sense but through their involvement in the game. A forward who’s regularly taking shots from inside the box, or a midfielder who’s frequently finding himself in dangerous positions, is far more likely to score than one who’s simply relying on a single lucky break. Take someone like Bryan Mbeumo, for example. His xG stats—when compared to his actual goals scored—have always suggested that he’s more involved in his team’s attacking play than his points might reflect. It’s not just about waiting for that next goal to come; it’s about recognising the consistency in a player’s chances. Those consistent opportunities, over time, can lead to an upward spike in points.
Spotting the Overachievers: The Dangers of Overvaluing Luck
Now, the flip side of all this is that players who consistently overperform their xG are often a danger. Take the story of players like Matheus Cunha, for instance. There’s no doubting his quality, but his xG numbers often suggest that his tally of goals could easily have been lower, given the quality of the chances he’s had. When you see a player who regularly overachieves, it’s tempting to think they’re simply on fire. Yet, as the numbers show, that fire often burns out. Overachievers tend to regress back to their mean over time, and that’s where xG is invaluable. It acts as a warning system, alerting you when it’s perhaps time to move away from a player whose returns are far higher than the chances suggest.
This doesn’t mean you should avoid such players altogether, of course. They may continue to thrive, or they might develop into truly reliable assets. But relying solely on goals or assists alone, without looking at the underlying numbers, leaves you open to the same frustrations that come with chasing form. It’s easy to fall for the illusion of good fortune, and it’s just as easy to find yourself holding a player who is destined to regress, all because you didn’t pay attention to the more subtle numbers.
